Tuesday, 26 July 2016

Joe Allen: A Backward Step?

Joe Allen has just this week signed for Stoke City from Liverpool for a fee of £13m.

A couple of weeks ago he played in the semi-final of the UEFA European Championships for Wales against Portugal, having played an integral midfield role for Wales throughout what was an extraordinary tournament for them.

At the conclusion of the tournament, UEFA announced its All Star Euro 2016 XI and it looked like this:
1) Rui Patricio (Portugal)
2) Joshua Kimmich (Germany)
3) Raphael Guerreiro (Portugal)
4) Pepe (Portugal)
5) Jerome Boateng (Germany)
6) Toni Kroos (Germany)
7) Joe Allen (Wales)
8) Aaron Ramsey (Wales)
9) Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal)
10) Antoine Griezmann (France)
11) Dimitri Payet (France)

I have looked at All Star teams from World Cups and European Championships since 1986 and over time they developed from the bare XI to squads of 18 and then 22/23.  The selection of these teams / squads is always debatable of course and there will have been some omissions over the years. An example from Euro 2016 perhaps may be any one of Italy's central defence trio Barzagli, Bonucci and Chiellini or Portugal's robust and unheralded midfield basemanWilliam Carvahlo, but by and large players are in these selections because they have done exceptionally well in a team that has gone deep into the given tournament.

What has often happened is that a player that has done well in a tournament (and this applies on a greater scale to the larger pool of players that have performed but do not feature in the tournament All Star selection) grabs the attention of club coaches, managers and boards and gets a move, generally an UPWARD move, on the back of the tournament performance.

It struck me that Joe Allen's transfer to Stoke seems to be a backward step. Sure Stoke finished just one place below Liverpool in the 2015/16 PL season (8th versus 9th, though with Liverpool with a 9 point cushion), but under Jurgen Klopp whether he will admit it or not Liverpool's aim is to win the PL title and make a significant mark on Europe, whereas Stoke's ambitions are not quite so lofty and/or clear. History tells us that over a wider span of a few years teams tend to perform broadly in line with their wage bills. In 2015/16 Liverpool's wage bill was 5th highest in the PL, Stoke's was 9th. Liverpool's finish in 8th is therefore misleading by this logic, but they did lose two cup finals, one of which had the result gone the other way would have qualified them for the 2016/17 Champions League. We don't know how the 2016/17 wage bills will look like exactly just yet, but I would expect Liverpool to finish in the top 6 in 2016/17, with the top 4 being a realistic target, the title being the real goal. Stoke will be looking for a top half finish again but with reasonable expectations of making the top 6.

This Liverpool-Stoke comparison is of limited relevance. Stoke could end up finishing higher than Liverpool in May 2017, of course they could. However, right now you cannot say with certainty that moving from Liverpool to Stoke City is an upward move in a 26 year old footballer's career. Joe Allen is moving to Stoke in order to play regular first team football, because, despite being an All Star Euro 2016 XI footballer, he is not guaranteed a regular start at Anfield. Perhaps the move can still be construed as a forward step, if it means he is playing more regularly than not, but I refute this claim... simply because he is leaving Liverpool to play for Stoke.

Another argument is an entire discussion about the quality of the Euro 2016 tournament and the quality of international football in general and whether the All Star team means anything at all. The fact is a lot of money has been invested on the back of tournament performances over the years and winning international tournaments is hard, but I am not going to go any further down that road for now. Instead, I have been curious to learn of the trend of All Star tournament footballers making moves in their All Star summers. Is Joe's seemingly backward step a bit out of ordinary?

It turns out that I think it is. So let's have a look at who has been lighting up tournaments since 1986 and if they have moved forward, backwards or sideways. I chose 1986 because that gives 30 years, 16 major tournaments and 252 players (albeit with some recurring).  I can only determine that 9 players who featured in a tournament All Star team / squad went on to make what could reasonably be perceived to be a backward step in their career directly after the tournament. That said, each of these 9 carried circumstances that enable us to rate them with varying degrees of backwardness, depending on club finances, stage in career and stuff like this. To simplify matters there are four categories of move:
↑   Significant upward move
↑     Upward move
<-> Sideways move of sorts
↓     Backward step

1986 World Cup
GK: Jean Marie Pfaff (Belgium)
DF: Josimar (Brazil); Manuel Amoros (France); Julio Cesar (Brazil)
MF: Jan Cuelemans (Belgium); Jean Tigana (France); Michel Platini (France); Diego Maradona (Argentina)
FW: Preben Elkjaer Larsen (Denmark); Emilio Butragueno (Spain); Gary Lineker (England)
Movers
Julio Cesar       ↑   Guarani (Brazil) to Brest (France L1 club at the time)
Gary Lineker    ↑↑ Everton to Barcelona

1988 Euro
GK: Hans van Breukelen (Holland)
DF: Giuseppe Bergomi (Italy); Paolo Maldini (Italy); Ronald Koeman (Holland); Frank Rijkaard (Holland)
MF: Lothar Matthaus (Germany); Ruud Gullit (Holland); Jan Wouters (Holland); Giuseppe Giannini (Italy)
FW: Gianluca Vialli (Italy); Marco van Basten (Holland)
Movers
Frank Rijkaard       ↑↑ Sporting Lisbon  to   AC Milan
Lothar Matthaus     ↑   Bayern Munich   to   Inter          (an upward step at the time)

1990 World Cup
GK: Sergio Goycochea (Argentina); Luis Gabelo Conejo (Costa Rica)
DF: Andreas Brehme (Germany); Paolo Maldini (Italy); Franco Baresi (Italy)
MF: Lothar Matthaus (Germany); Dragan Stojkovic (Yugoslavia); Paul Gascoigne (England); Diego Maradona (Argentina)
FW: Salvatore Schillaci (England); Roger Milla (Cameroon); Jurgen Klinsmann (Germany)
Movers
Dragan Stojkovic  ↑↑    Red Star Belgrade to Marseilles
Roger Milla           ↓      Montpellier   to Tonnerre (Cameroon)  (acceptable given age 38)

1992 Euro
GK: Peter Schmeichel (Denmark)
DF: Jocelyn Angloma (France); Andreas Brehme (Germany); Laurent Blanc (France); Jurgen Kohler (Germany)
MF: Ruud Gullit (Holland); Stefan Effenberg (Germany); Thomas Hassler (Germany); Brian Laudrap (Denmark)
FW: Marco van Basten (Holland); Dennis Bergkamp (Holland)
Movers
Andreas Brehme         ↓    Inter     to Real Zaragoza   (age 31)
Laurent Blanc              ↓   Napoli  to Nimes
Stefan Effenberg          ↓   Bayern Munich to Fiorentina*
Brian Laudrap             ↓   Bayern Munich to Fiorentina*
(*Fiorentina spent big but ended up being relegated that season)

1994 World Cup
GK: Michel Preud'homme (Belgium)
DF: Jorginho (Brazil); Marcio Santos (Brazil); Paolo Maldini (Italy)
MF: Dunga (Brazil); Krasimir Balakov (Bulgaria); Gheorghe Hagi (Romania); Tomas Brolin (Sweden)
FW: Romario (Brazil); Hristo Stoichkov (Bulgaria); Roberto Baggio (Italy)
Movers
Michel Preud’homme    ↑↑     Mechelen  to  Benfica
Marcio Santoos            ↑       Bordeaux  to  Fiorentina
Gheorghe Hagi              ↑     Brescia     to  Barcelona

1996 Euro
GK: David Seaman (England); Andreas Kopke (Germany)
DF: Radoslav Latal (Czech Rep); Laurent Blanc (France); Marcel Desailly (France); Matthias Sammer (Germany); Paolo Maldini (Italy)
MF: Didier Deschamps (France); Steve McManaman (England); Paul Gascoigne (England); Rui Costa (Portugal); Karel Poborsky (Czech Rep); Dieter Eilts (Germany)
FW: Alan Shearer (England); Hristo Stoichkov (Bulgaria); Davor Suker (Croatia); Youri Djorkaeff (France); Pavel Kuka (Czech Rep)
Movers
1996 Euro
Andreas Kopke     <->    E Frankfurt  to    Marseilles
Laurent Blanc         ↑↑      Auxerre       to    Barcelona
Karel Poborsky      ↑↑      Slv. Prague  to   Man Utd
Alan Shearer          <->    Blackburn    to    Newcastle    (possibly backward given Man U bid)
Hristo Stoichkov     ↑↑      Parma          to    Barcelona
Davor Suker           ↑↑      Sevilla          to    Real Madrid
Youri Djorkaeff       ↑↑      PSG            to   Inter  

1998 World Cup
GK: Fabien Barthez (France); Jose Luis Chilavert (Paraguay)
DF: Roberto Carlos (Brazil); Marcel Desailly (France); Lilian Thuram (France); Frank de Boer (Holland); Carlos Gamarra (Paraguay)
MF: Dunga (Brazil); Rivaldo (Brazil); Michael Laudrap (Denmark); Zinedine Zidane (France); Edgar Davids (Holland)
FW: Ronaldo (Brazil); Davor Suker (Croatia); Brian Laudrap (Denmark); Dennis Bergkamp (Holland)
Movers
Marcel Desailly             AC Milan  to  Chelsea   (had already won everything)
Carlos Gamarra     <->   Benfica      to  Corinthians
Dunga                           Jubilo Iwata to Internacional  (age 35)
Michael Laudrap    RETIRED
Brian Laudrap               Glasgow Rangers  to  Chelsea

2000 Euro
GK: Francesco Toldo (Italy); Fabien Barthez (France)
DF: Lilian Thuram (France); Laurent Blanc (France); Marcel Desailly (France); Alessandro Nesta (Italy); Fabio Cannavaro (Italy); Paolo Maldini (Italy); Frank de Boer (Holland)
MF: Patrick Vieira (France); Zinedine Zidane (France); Luis Figo (Portugal); Rui Costa (Portugal); Edgar Davids (Holland); Demetrio Albertini (Italy); Pep Guardiola (Spain)
FW: Thierry Henry (France); Patrick Kluivert (Holland); Nuno Gomes (Portugal); Raul (Spain); Francesco Totti (Italy); Savo Milosevic (Yugoslavia)
Movers
Fabien Barthez    ↑↑      Monaco      to  Man Utd
Luis Figo             <->    Barcelona   to  Real Madrid
Nuno Gomes       ↑        Benfica       to  Fiorentina
Savo Milosevic    ↑        Zaragoza    to  Parma

2002 World Cup
GK: Oliver Kahn (Germany); Rustu Recber (Turkey)
DF: Roberto Carlos (Brazil); Sol Campbell (England); Fernando Hierro (Spain); Hong Myung-bo (South Korea); Aplay Ozalan (Turkey)
MF: Rivaldo (Brazil); Ronaldinho (Brazil); Michael Ballack (Germany); Claudio Reyna (USA); Yoo Sang-Chul (South Korea) 
FW: Ronaldo (Brazil); Miroslav Klose (Germany); El Hadji Diouf (Senegal); Hasan Sas (Turkey)
Movers
Hong Myung-bo   ↑       Pohang      to  LA Galaxy
Rivaldo                 <->  Barcelona   to  AC Milan
Michael Ballack     ↑     Leverkusen  to  Bayern Munich
Ronaldo                ↑      Inter        to  Real Madrid
El Hadji Diouf       ↑↑    Lens        to   Liverpool               

2004 Euro
GK: Petr Cech (Czech Rep); Antonios Nikopolidis (Greece)
DF: Ashley Cole (England); Sol Campbell (England); Ricardo Carvalho (Portugal); Traianos Dellas (Greece); Olof Mellberg (Sweden); Giourkas Seitaridis (Greece); Gianluca Zambrotta (Italy)
MF: Frank Lampard (England); Michael Ballack (Germany); Luis Figo (Portugal); Maniche (Portugal); Pavel Nedved (Czech Rep); Theo Zagorakis (Greece); Zinedine Zidane (France)
FW: Wayne Rooney (England); Milan Baros (Czech Rep); Henrik Larsson (Sweden); Jon Dahl Tomasson (Denmark); Ruud van Nistelrooy (Holland); Angelos Charisteas (Greece); Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal)
Movers
Petr Cech                    ↑↑      Sparta Prague   to  Chelsea   (Agreed Pre-Tournament)
Antonios Nikopolidis   <->    Panathinaikos   to   Olympiacos
Ricardo Carvalho        <->   Porto     to   Chelsea        (Porto had just won the UCL)
Giourkas Seitaridis        ↑       Panathinaikos   to   Porto
Theo Zagorakis             ↑      AEK Athens    to   Bologna
Wayne Rooney            ↑↑      Everton    to  Man Utd
Henrik Larsson            ↑↑      Glasgow Celtic to   Barcelona

2006 World Cup
GK: Gianluigi Buffon (Italy); Jens Lehmann (Germany); Ricardo (Portugal)
DF: Roberto Ayala (Argentina); John Terry (England); Lilian Thuram (France); Philipp Lahm (Germany); Fabio Cannavaro (Italy); Gianluca Zambrotta (Italy); Ricardo Carvalho (Portugal)
MF: Ze Roberto (Brazil); Patrick Vieira (France); Zinedine Zidane (France); Michael Ballack (Germany); Andrea Pirlo (Italy); Gennaro Gattuso (Italy); Luis Figo (Portugal); Maniche (Portugal)
FW: Hernan Crespo (Argentina); Thierry Henry (France); Miroslav Klose (Germany); Luca Toni (Italy); Francesco Totti (Italy)
Movers
Lilian Thuram            ↑↑      Juventus*   to   Barcelona
Fabio Cannavaro       ↑↑      Juventus*  to   Real Madrid
Gianluca Zambrotta   ↑↑      Juventus*   to  Barcelona
Patrick Vieira            ↑↑      Juventus*   to  Inter
Ze Roberto               ↑↑      Bayern Munich   to Santos
Zinedine Zidane        RETIRED
Michael Ballack        <->    Bayern Munich   to Chelsea
Maniche                     ↓       Chelsea   to  Atletico Madrid     (Atleti 10th in La Liga in 05/06)
Hernan Crespo         <->    Chelsea    to  Inter      (LOAN)
(*Juventus relegated to Serie B that summer due to Calciopoli)

2008 Euro
GK: Gianluigi Buffon (Italy); Iker Casillas (Spain); Edwin van der Sar (Holland)
DF: Jose Bosingwa (Portugal); Philipp Lahm (Germany); Carlos Marchena (Spain); Pepe (Portugal); Carles Puyol (Spain); Yuri Zhirkov (Russia)
MF: Hamit Altintop (Turkey); Luka Modric (Croatia); Marcos Senna (Spain); Xavi (Spain); Konstantin Zryyanov (Russia); Michael Ballack (Germany); Cesc Fabregas (Spain); Andres Iniesta (Spain); Lukas Podolski (Germany); Wesley Sneijder (Holland)
FW: Andrey Arshavin (Russia); Roman Pavlyuchenko (Russia); Fernando Torres (Spain); David Villa (Spain)
Movers
Jose Bosingwa             ↑    Porto     to    Chelsea         (Agreed Pre-Tournament)
Luka Modric                ↑   Dinamo Zagreb    to  Tottenham     (Agreed Pre-Tournament)
Roman Pavlyuchenko   ↑   Spartak Moscow  to  Tottenham

2010 World Cup
GK: Iker Casillas (Spain)
DF: Philipp Lahm (Germany); Sergio Ramos (Spain); Carles Puyol (Spain); Maicon (Brazil)
MF: Xavi (Spain); Bastian Schweinsteiger (Germany); Wesley Sneijder (Holland); Andres Iniesta (Spain)
FW: David Villa (Spain); Diego Forlan (Uruguay)
Movers
David Villa       ↑↑    Valencia   to  Barcelona       (Agreed Pre-Tournament)      

2012 Euro
GK: Gianluigi Buffon (Italy); Iker Casillas (Spain); Manuel Neuer (Germany)
DF: Gerard Pique (Spain); Fabio Coentrao (Portugal); Philipp Lahm (Germany); Pepe (Portugal); Sergio Ramos (Spain); Jordi Alba (Spain) 
MF: Steven Gerrard (England); Daniele De Rossi (Italy); Xavi (Spain); Andres Iniesta (Spain); Sami Khedira (Germany); Sergio Busquets (Spain); Mesut Ozil (Germany); Andrea Pirlo (Italy); Xabi Alonso (Spain)
FW: Mario Balotelli (Italy); Cesc Fabregas (Spain); Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal); Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Sweden); David Silva (Spain)
Movers
Jordi Alba               ↑↑    Valencia   to  Barcelona
Zlatan Ibrahimovic  <->   AC Milan to  PSG

2014 World Cup
GK: Manuel Neuer (Germany)
DF: Marcelo (Brazil); Mats Hummels (Germany); Thiago Silva (Brazil); David Luiz (Brazil)
MF: Angel Di Maria (Argentina); Toni Kroos (Germany); James Rodriguez (Colombia)
FW: Lionel Messi (Argentina); Thomas Muller (Germany); Neymar (Brazil)
Movers
David Luiz           <->    Chelsea      to  PSG         (Agreed Pre-Tournament)
Angel Di Maria     ↓        Real Madrid to Man Utd      (still very high fee and wage deal)
Toni Kroos           ↑        Bayern       to  Real Madrid
James Rodriguez   ↑↑      Monaco     to  Real Madrid

2016 Euro
GK: Rui Patricio (Portugal)
DF: Joshua Kimmich (Germany); Raphael Guerreiro (Portugal); Pepe (Portugal); Jerome Boateng (Germany)
MF: Toni Kroos (Germany); Joe Allen (Wales); Aaron Ramsey (Wales); Dimitri Payet (France)
FW: Antoine Griezmann (France); Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal)
Movers
Raphael Guerreiro  ↑↑     Lorient      to  Borussia Dortmund     (Agreed Pre-Tournament)
Joe Allen                ↓      Liverpool   to  Stoke

Conclusion
Now let us group all of the backward steps together:
1990: Roger Milla         - Montpellier to Tonnerre (Cameroon)  (acceptable given age 38)
1992: Andreas Brehme  - Inter to Real Zaragoza (age 31)
1992: Laurent Blanc      - Napoli to Nimes
1992: Stefan Effenberg   - Bayern Munich to Fiorentina*
1992: Brian Laudrap      - Bayern Munich to Fiorentina*
(*Fiorentina spent big but ended up being relegated that season)
1998: Marcel Desailly   - AC Milan to Chelsea (already had strong honours amassed)
2006: Maniche             - Chelsea to Atletico Madrid (Atleti 10th in La Liga in 05/06)
2014: Angel Di Maria   - Real Madrid to Man Utd (still very high fee and wage deal)
2016: Joe Allen            - Liverpool to Stoke (see opening debate)